I spoke with NBC‘s Sahil Kapur about the bipartisan gun safety framework in the Senate, and what it says about the shifting political and strategic calculations of Republican leadership.

Liam Donovan, a lobbyist and former Republican campaign operative, attributed the intra-party shift to a growing prevalence of mass shootings and a “realignment of the GOP coalition.”

“Suburban Romney voters who had once been squarely part of the base are now up for grabs, if not beginning to lean Democrat, and this is the sort of issue that could make a big difference at the margin, both in the midterms and going forward,” Donovan said.

Read the full piece here.

It didn’t make the piece, but another important factor here is the limited window for such a deal to occur. A potential GOP Senate would be unlikely to lead on anything in this realm, to say nothing of the anticipated Republican majority in the House. This is a unique opportunity to defuse a key issue with just a fraction of the conference, with the added bonus of gumming up the legislative calendar at a make or break time for other Democratic priorities.

10yrs down the road of more incidents, more urgency/salience + accelerating realignment of the suburbs as a political matter is what changes the dynamics, and I think Sahil lays the predicate well. One missing link: this is the last best chance for Rs to take it off the table.

— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) June 16, 2022

Jamie Dupree had a column quoting me in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution looking at the May primary gauntlet as a barometer for Trump’s political strength.

The first test is on Tuesday, May 3 in Ohio, where Trump has endorsed J.D. Vance for U.S. Senate, scrambling the GOP race. A few weeks ago, Vance was going nowhere. Now, he might win the primary.

“All things equal, he still matters,” GOP strategist Liam Donovan said of Trump. “A lot.”

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to POLITICO‘s Kate Davidson about the surprisingly ugly Q1 GDP number and what it means politically for the Biden administration.

The senior Biden administration official pointed to a thread Wednesday from Jason Furman, former chair of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, explaining why technical factors in the first quarter masked the economy’s underlying strength.

But one analyst said that kind of messaging from the White House wouldn’t work.

“Any time you’re relying on a 12-tweet thread from Jason Furman to explain why actually the economy is better than it looks — particularly when GDP is already an abstract thing that people are not necessarily intuitively feeling, unlike inflation — I think it makes the story they’re trying to tell now even tougher,” said Liam Donovan, a principal at Bracewell LLP and a former GOP operative. “There’s only so many indicators left that can provide good news. The last thing they need is further bad news.”

Read the full piece here.