NRO: The Blue Wall Crumbles

My latest at National Review on demographics as destiny, Obama’s hidden WWC strength, and the Clinton campaign’s folly:

The failure of Hillary Clinton to excite, turn out, and sustain Obama margins with the so-called Rising American Electorate hurt her badly. But even more fatefully, the Clinton campaign — and Democrats generally — appear to have misread the very make-up of their coalition, and in doing so ignored the apparent glue that was holding together the deceptively fragile Blue Wall. In the end, a little more than 100,000 votes separate genius and glory from folly and failure.

Full piece here.

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The Hill: Trump Closing Strong


The Hill‘s Jonathan Swan looks at Trump’s apparent consolidation of the GOP base down the stretch:

“We treat him like a toddler who should get an electoral cookie for not soiling himself in public,” said Liam Donovan, a former aide to the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Then again, Republican voters seem to be rewarding him for it, so go figure.”

More than anything he has done or said, Donovan thinks Trump’s improved standing probably has to do with FBI Director James Comey shifting the public’s focus to Clinton by informing lawmakers last week of the FBI’s discovery of emails that may be relevant to the bureau’s investigation into whether Clinton mishandled classified information.

“Especially insofar as FBI leaks and WikiLeaks chatter have crowded out any Trump oppo,” he added, “and kept what has been dropped from getting any real traction.”

Full piece here.

UPDATE:

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The Hill: Republican voters coming home to Trump

The Hill‘s Jonathan Swan and Niall Stanage see Republican voters coming home to Trump:

Liam Donovan, a former aide to the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that recent polls notwithstanding, Trump’s “greatest challenge” has been his inability to consolidate self-identified Republicans.

“At some level the base naturally wants to come home, but Trump’s mouth keeps getting in the way,” Donovan said. “When the polling looks good it’s because he is performing like previous nominees — no more, no less.”

Donovan said Trump gains with hesitant Republicans only when he campaigns with discipline.

Offering Trump some unsolicited advice, Donovan said, “Put away the Android Twitter app. Let the news cycle consume your opponent instead of trying to seize back the spotlight.”

Full piece here.

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