I spoke to Jonathan Nicholson of MarketWatch about the parties’ dueling visions for child tax credit reforms within the context of COVID relief.

Liam Donovan, a principal with Bracewell LLP’s Policy Resolution Group in Washington, said the fact the Democrats led their aid package rollout this week with details of the child tax credit boost shows they’re serious about it, and its chances for inclusion in a final package are good.

“It’s a longstanding priority,” he said. “In terms of the interplay with Romney, I think it’s almost kind of incidental, but in terms of their intentions here, they seem pretty clear this is a high priority.”

While the Democratic plan as proposed is temporary, history has demonstrated lawmakers’ willingness to extend popular temporary tax breaks when they are set to expire. That could make the proposal, for which the Democrats did not specify any offsetting cuts or revenue increases elsewhere, one of a group of provisions called “tax extenders” that are routinely given new life on an annual or biennial basis.

Donovan said that including the idea in the coronavirus bill and passing the bill through the budget reconciliation process, which means it can’t be blocked by Republicans in the Senate, shows how the tax code will reflect the political polarization of the times.

“So long as the only route to major legislation is through reconciliation, I think the tax code is going bear all the hallmarks of what it takes to get something done through reconciliation. It’s going to make it more complicated, but that’s just the nature of the beast at this political moment,” he said.

Read the full piece here.

The New York Times‘ David Leonhardt plugged some of my thoughts on the filibuster in a worthwhile look at the dynamics at play.

The filibuster isn’t going anywhere yet. Some past Democratic supporters of the filibuster — like Senator Jon Tester of Montana and Biden himself — have said they might consider eliminating it if Republicans continued to reject compromise. Others — like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema — say they remain opposed.

But the issue won’t be decided in the abstract, as the Republican strategist Liam Donovan has noted. When the Senate is next considering a specific bill that has the support of a majority but not a supermajority, that will be the crucial moment.

Read the full piece here.

He could have linked any number of my rants on the subject, but here’s my take in a nutshell:

I spoke to the BBC‘s Anthony Zurcher about where the GOP is headed in the wake of the Trump presidency.

With his victory, he became the Republican establishment – and all but the most recalcitrant never-Trumpers eventually bent to his will.

They bent, according to Liam Donovan, a Republican lobbyist and former Senate campaign strategist, because that’s where the party membership took them. Trump appointed top party officials, like Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel. And at the state and local level, Republican Party officials are Trump true believers.

“The state party leaders are the activists, not the elite,” says Donovan. “The rank and file are hardcore Republicans, and hardcore Republicans are hardcore Trump people. He has absolutely converted them.”

…

Donovan isn’t so sure Republicans can – or even will want to – turn back the clock.

“What Trump proved is being a slave to whatever conservative orthodoxy says is not necessary or even necessarily advantageous,” he says.

Trump ran against free trade, open immigration and an aggressive foreign policy, and was an ardent critic of cutting Social Security. Other Republican politicians might decide Trump has proven that heterodoxy isn’t so risky.

“A lot of people are playing with different things Trump has done,” he says, “but I don’t think anyone has figured it out yet.”

They may not have to figure it out, however. Even after all the events of recent days, Donald Trump may not be done yet.

Read the full piece here.