The Atlantic: Democrats’ Biggest Threat in 2018

I spoke with Ron Brownstein of The Atlantic about GOP tax cuts and the midterm elections:

The comparable risk for Democrats this year is that they will be caught in an endless succession of Trump-centered battles—both cultural (guns, immigration) and personal (Russia, White House chaos)—and fail to effectively challenge the GOP claim that its tax-cut plan is benefiting average families. Republicans expect that if voters believe the party is putting more money in their pockets, even many people recoiling from Trump’s performance will still vote to maintain GOP control of Congress.

That’s why so many Republican strategists believe that talking up the tax plan is the key to avoiding a worse-case scenario this fall. “For Republicans, it’s absolutely the most important thing,” said Liam Donovan, a GOP lobbyist close to the party’s congressional-campaign strategists. “There are other things they can’t control—this is something they can.”

Republicans have largely succeeded in convincing the American people that the new tax law is good for the economy in the abstract. But the extent to which it will be an electoral winner–or meaningful mitigator–depends on voters appreciating the direct impact on their paycheck and their families. In that regard they still need to close the sale.

You can read the full piece here.

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The Lobby Shop Episode #39: What’s in Our Wallet? Balancing a National Budget

From the passage of the 2018 budget deal to the President’s FY19 budget proposal announcement, there has been a lot of talk in Washington about federal money and where it should go. Josh and Liam sit down with two lobbyists who have significant experience in this complicated area of government, Ed Krenik and John Lee, to discuss the political context for these events, how they differ, and what they mean for policy going forward.

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