I spoke with Molly Ball of Time Magazine about how purple state GOP Senate challengers are betting on President Trump:

For the most part, it looks like a losing bet. Vukmir’s opponent, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, is ahead by double digits in nearly every recent poll. It’s a similar story in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Florida is still a toss-up, but the Democratic incumbent, Bill Nelson, holds a narrow lead over Governor Rick Scott, an early Trump backer who bounded onstage with the President at a rally Oct. 31. “These are states that never had a Trump majority, where because of the dynamics in 2016 he could win with 48% of the vote, and the President is not as popular in these states as he was two years ago,” said Liam Donovan, a D.C.-based GOP strategist. “And none of these [Republican] candidates are running against Hillary Clinton.”

…

Another possible reason for the Senate strategy is that it represents the only chance for candidates like Vukmir, conventional wisdom be damned. This theory holds that, in a nationalized election where Democratic voters are energized and independents have soured on the GOP, Republicans’ only hope is to get more of their own dispirited voters riled up. And Trump is the best tool for that. “You can try to make a case for how you’re different, but the Whole Foods moms are too pissed off to listen,” Donovan said.

Read the entire piece here.

I spoke with Alex Seitz-Wald of NBC News about the phenomenon of deep blue states electing Republican governors in the age of Trump:

It’s a familiar script to the one employed by other blue-state Republican governors, including Charlie Baker in Massachusetts and Larry Hogan in Maryland, who is on a campaign swing with Democrats who support him.

“In a counterintuitive way, the polarized national environment accentuates the very things that make these figures appealing,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican consultant. “Moderate sensibility focused on local policy issues rather than political wedges, capacity (indeed, necessity) to work in a bipartisan way, and a tone that resonates regardless of party.”

Read the entire piece here.

I spoke with Claire Williams of Morning Consult about President Trump’s recent floating of a middle class tax cut and the political impact of TCJA (or lack thereof):

And Trump’s bid to capitalize on the strong market performance could have a downside. A market rout on Wednesday sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling more than 600 points and the Nasdaq down 4.4 percent, although most major market indicators largely recovered a day later. Despite any volatility in the market, GOP strategists hope voters will take a longer-term view of the economy.

“Big picture over the past two years, the job market is doing very well,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist and lobbyist. “We’ll see if there’s a blip. What’s on the front pages in the next few weeks could matter on the margins.”

Read the entire piece here.