I spoke to CNN‘s Mike Warren about former President Trump’s impending summer rally revival tour, and risk-reward proposition it offers for Republicans.

Others, including Meadows, are looking forward to Trump’s return to the campaign trail due to his unique ability to connect with the party’s grassroots base, according to a person familiar with his thinking.

But Republican leaders hoping for a reliable messenger are ignoring Trump’s nature, said Republican strategist Liam Donovan.”He cares about the party and its fortunes to the extent it furthers his interests, but as a private citizen circa 2022 he has vanishingly little skin in the game,” said Donovan. “Nobody should be surprised that he is more focused on nursing 2020 grudges than helping Republicans win next fall.”

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Jonathan Martin of the New York Times about the GOP’s identity crisis in the wake of Trump.

It’s a strikingly different approach from the last time Democrats had full control of government, in 2009 and 2010, when conservatives harnessed the Great Recession to stoke anger about President Barack Obama and federal spending on their way to sweeping midterm gains. But Mr. Biden, a white political veteran, is not much of a foil for the party’s far-right base and is unlikely to grow more polarizing with the country at large.

“2010 had the veneer of philosophical and ideological coherence, but we don’t even bother paying lip service to that now,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican lobbyist. “Trump made grievances that were the aperitif into the entree.”

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to CNN‘s Eric Bradner about the post-acquittal fallout and the increasingly public rift within the GOP about how to move forward.

“The path of least resistance for Republicans is to unify as the loyal opposition and hope the natural political gravity of the midterm cycle takes hold. But the demand problem on the right makes this tension difficult to elide — there’s a vocal market for defending Trump, and it’s going to be served one way or another, turning primaries into de facto referenda, and putting those deemed insufficiently loyal in a tough position,” said Republican strategist Liam Donovan.

…

“The primary battles could yield candidates or divisions that squander otherwise winnable races, but so much of 2022 will hinge on the macro question of whether voters feel like life is back to normal,” Donovan said. “Either way, the next year or so will give us a good indication of whether the GOP is ready or even willing to turn the page.”

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Jonathan Nicholson of MarketWatch about the parties’ dueling visions for child tax credit reforms within the context of COVID relief.

Liam Donovan, a principal with Bracewell LLP’s Policy Resolution Group in Washington, said the fact the Democrats led their aid package rollout this week with details of the child tax credit boost shows they’re serious about it, and its chances for inclusion in a final package are good.

“It’s a longstanding priority,” he said. “In terms of the interplay with Romney, I think it’s almost kind of incidental, but in terms of their intentions here, they seem pretty clear this is a high priority.”

While the Democratic plan as proposed is temporary, history has demonstrated lawmakers’ willingness to extend popular temporary tax breaks when they are set to expire. That could make the proposal, for which the Democrats did not specify any offsetting cuts or revenue increases elsewhere, one of a group of provisions called “tax extenders” that are routinely given new life on an annual or biennial basis.

Donovan said that including the idea in the coronavirus bill and passing the bill through the budget reconciliation process, which means it can’t be blocked by Republicans in the Senate, shows how the tax code will reflect the political polarization of the times.

“So long as the only route to major legislation is through reconciliation, I think the tax code is going bear all the hallmarks of what it takes to get something done through reconciliation. It’s going to make it more complicated, but that’s just the nature of the beast at this political moment,” he said.

Read the full piece here.

The New York Times‘ David Leonhardt plugged some of my thoughts on the filibuster in a worthwhile look at the dynamics at play.

The filibuster isn’t going anywhere yet. Some past Democratic supporters of the filibuster — like Senator Jon Tester of Montana and Biden himself — have said they might consider eliminating it if Republicans continued to reject compromise. Others — like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema — say they remain opposed.

But the issue won’t be decided in the abstract, as the Republican strategist Liam Donovan has noted. When the Senate is next considering a specific bill that has the support of a majority but not a supermajority, that will be the crucial moment.

Read the full piece here.

He could have linked any number of my rants on the subject, but here’s my take in a nutshell: