WSJ: Matt Gaetz Tore the House GOP Apart. He isn’t Sorry.

I spoke to Molly Ball for her Wall Street Journal profile on Rep. Matt Gaetz amid the fallout from the leadership coup he precipitated.

Whether McCarthy is replaced by a similar figure or a more conservative one, Gaetz wins either way, said Liam Donovan, a Republican lobbyist. If a conservative wins it would make Gaetz a hero to the right; otherwise it would further his argument that the D.C. “cartel” is conspiring to frustrate conservatives’ aims. 

“It just sets up the grievance-based grift that powered him to this point,” Donovan said. “Matt Gaetz can’t do anything but win in this situation.”

Read the full piece here.


In a meta twist, Gaetz himself took to his podcast, Firebrand, to weigh in on the profile, including a disconcerting affirmation of my quote.

Relevant clip below:

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CSM: GOP Has Weaponized Chaos–Against Itself

I spoke to Story Hinckley for her Christian Science Monitor piece on the speaker chaos within the House GOP.

But rather than opposing a temporary speakership on procedural grounds, the departure here between Mr. Jordan’s statement and the responses by “Jordaneers” proves that the Ohio Republican’s speakership fight is a useful instrument in and of itself, says Liam Donovan, a former staffer for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and now a lobbyist.

“Jordan doesn’t want to lose, but if you are Jordan’s backers, you are fine with him losing if you get to kick and scream about the ‘DC cartel’ keeping conservatives from winning,” says Mr. Donovan. “They are setting up options that only fulfill their narrative.”

Read the full piece here.

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Pro Politics: Liam Donovan Returns

I joined veteran Democratic pollster Zac McCrary for his Pro Politics Podcast to unpack the events of the past two weeks, and what we should expect from the House GOP conference going forward.

Listen to the full episode here.

Show notes via Pro Politics:

Liam Donovan, a principal at Bracewell and longtime insider and observer of the Hill GOP, returns to weigh in on a chaotic couple of weeks in the House – including the surprise sidestepping of a government shutdown, the toppling of Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and the budding race to fill his shoes. In this conversation, Liam talks the factors that led to McCarthy’s ouster, how House Democrats could’ve “saved” him (and why they didn’t), how he’s thinking about the nascent race to be the next Speaker, a check-in on the ’24 GOP presidential primary & more.


IN THIS EPISODE

Liam’s take on the 9-month tenure of Speaker McCarthy…


Liam’s biggest surprises in the saga of the toppling of Kevin McCarthy…


Why the CR to keep the government open both antagonized GOP rebels while alienating House Democrats…


Why Democrats might have chosen to “save” McCarthy…and why they didn’t…


How Liam is looking at the Jordan vs. Scalise battle for Speaker…


Liam on the possibility of a McCarthy Restoration…


Why acting-Speaker Patrick McHenry could be a default longer-term option…


A couple members of the GOP conference who Liam thinks will be predictive of who emerges from the fight for Speaker…


Liam on a possible shutdown after the 45-day CR elapses…


The path forward for additional funding of Ukraine…


Liam’s latest take on Trump’s strength in the GOP presidential primary and the campaigns of Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley…


AND big bargaining chips, catching the fly, Wile E. Coyote, the debt limit crisis, Diet Trump, discharge petitions, evil-genius super villains, Brian Fitzpatrick, the Freedom Caucus, the Gaetz 8, the Full Ginsberg, Lindsay Graham, gratuitous shutdowns, Garret Graves, Ben Jacobs, Hakeem Jeffries, jousting with totems, Mitch McConnell, nihilism, AOC, Nancy Pelosi, Politico, procedural blockades, Punchbowl, The Republican Study Committee, revocable non-support, tipping points, Glenn Youngkin…& more!

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Daily Beast: Kevin McCarthy’s Fall is a Body Blow to the GOP Money Machine

I spoke to Jake Lahut of the Daily Beast about the impact of Speaker McCarthy’s ouster on GOP prospects in light of his vaunted political and fundraising operation.

With McCarthy now relegated to the House Republican rank and file after his historic ousterfrom the speakership this week, the campaign cash void he leaves behind might be as concerning to Republicans as the literal power vacuum in the House.

Liam Donovan, a lobbyist and former GOP campaign strategist, succinctly described the impact of McCarthy’s removal: “obviously huge shoes to fill, wildly disruptive, terrible timing.”

“Scalise is best positioned to hit the ground running and scale up what already exists,” Donovan said.

Read the full piece here.

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POLITICO Mag: Everyone Played Their Part

I wrote a short piece for a POLITICO Magazine series on the sacking of Kevin McCarthy and what it says about our politics.

No one should shed any tears for Kevin McCarthy. He got the job he sought his entire career, performed as well as anyone could have reasonably anticipated, and kept the balls in the air longer than he probably had any business doing. Caught between unstoppable force and immovable object, in the end, McCarthy chose to accept his fate rather than contrive some untenable transactional truce. Whatever his future in Congress holds, he’ll have a long second act as a Republican wise man, and his ouster will be mythologized into partisan martyrdom.

Nor can you blame House Democrats for declining to fend off — whether by action or inaction — a beast of the right’s own creation. In the end, they chose to serve as Matt Gaetz’s executioner because they could; because their deepening mistrust of the speaker eclipsed any perceived value in his ongoing survival; and because affording any measure of grace — even out of partisan self-interest — would have been met with fury by a base whose contempt for McCarthy matched the caucus’ own.

Even Gaetz, the jester of the GOP, achieved his vainglorious end, setting into motion a political trolley problem that accomplished what he couldn’t or wouldn’t by himself, and, perhaps most importantly, casting himself as the star of the show.

Ultimately the tragedy of this week — and for the immediate future of congressional politics, it is a tragedy — is that everyone involved acted rationally, almost clinically so, according to their respective incentives. The calculus that prompted McCarthy to cheat his own destiny as long as he did was vacated along with his office, and the circumstances surrounding his defenestration have already eroded what few bipartisan courtesies had survived to date. So long as the nihilist’s veto exists — newly operationalized, and suddenly with precedent — even the baseline functions of government will be in question.

Changing the rules of the House is a start. But so long as voters continue to channel their frustrations with Washington by sending people committed to burning it down, the cycle of dysfunction will continue.

Read the entire forum here.

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