I spoke to Bloomberg Businessweek‘s Joshua Green about what would have to happen for Democrats to have a fighting chance to defy history and maintain the House majority through the midterm election.

Any upset would be predicated on one thing: a return to normalcy. Insiders agree that inflation would have to fall and Covid subside to the point where schools stay open and masks are an afterthought. “It needs to feel like 2019, not 2021,” says Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist.

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As much as Democrats might loathe the prospect of his return, Trump could plausibly short-circuit historical voting patterns by sowing discord within his party and sabotaging Republican voter enthusiasm. To defy predictions, Democrats probably need him to be a high-profile negative factor in the months leading up to the election.

Donovan has a theory about how that might occur. “For the last year, Trump has been in a straitjacket where he can’t harm his own party,” he says. “With Jack Dorsey [the former Twitter Inc. chief executive officer] leaving, maybe he gets back on Twitter.”

That would vault Trump back into the public spotlight. And then, who knows? Says Donovan, “There’s no bigger midterm wild card than letting the tiger out of its cage.”

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Jess Bidgood of The Boston Globe about GOP Senate recruitment efforts and how that factors into the party’s opportunity to take back the majority in November.

“It’s such an odd moment for the party,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican lobbyist who worked for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.“We’re not quite post-Trump, we’re mid-Trump. I think until we can fully turn the page, there’s going to be a lot of people who keep their powder dry.

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to NBC News‘ Sahil Kapur about New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu’s decision to forgo a Senate challenge and what it means for GOP majority hopes.

“All things equal, Sununu taking a pass is an unequivocally positive development for Democrats,” said Liam Donovan, a lobbyist and former Senate Republican campaign aide. “But in addition to recruiting breaks, Dems need the national environment to improve considerably over the next year or they stand losing to a less heralded group of GOP majority makers.”

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Grace Segers of The New Republic about New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu’s decision to forgo a Senate challenge and what it means for the hopes of a GOP majority.

It’s obviously a disappointment, as a Sununu candidacy would immediately make [New Hampshire] the marquee race of the cycle, but given the results of last week’s elections, it’s not the mortal blow it otherwise might have been,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist. “At this point, the GOP Senate majority is going to be a function of solid recruits riding a friendly environment.”

Donovan told The New Republic that Republicans needed to avoid “messy primaries” that could produce disappointing candidates and that the New Hampshire race would now be a test of that premise. “All in all, Senate [Republicans] have to feel better about where things stand today than they did a week ago, even with Sununu passing,” Donovan said.

Read the full piece here.