Podcasts

The Lobby Shop Episode #24: Capitol Chatter

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Josh Zive chats with Liam Donovan, DC political commentator and tax expert, on the Capitol climate, what’s on the minds of Congress members, and how those assessments fit in with our earlier predictions for September. Peppered in are college basketball opinions, a tragic lack of Game of Thrones content, and the latest fashion tips from The Hill. #neversocks Follow us on Twitter: @policyrez, @BracewellLaw, @jczive, @LPDonovan

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Podcasts

5th Estate Podcast: Talking DACA, Trump and the Chuck & Nancy Show

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I caught up with Jay Caruso and Neal Dewing to talk about immigration policy, the DACA debate, and the President’s sudden friendship with Democratic Leaders Schumer and Pelosi. We also discussed the relative merits of the Beatles and the Rolling Stones, so make sure to listen to the end.

Click here for the episode page.

If you like what you hear, make sure to subscribe and leave a 5-star review.

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Quotes

POLITICO: Tax Reform is Hard

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I spoke with POLITICO‘s Bernie Becker about the difficulty of tax reform and the comments were spread between a couple different pieces.

First, the Morning Tax tipsheet:

But it’s also fair to point out that health care and tax reform don’t exactly present the same challenges, especially given how invested Republicans became in repealing Obamacare over the last seven-plus years. “You’ve traded that emotional complexity for substantive complexity,” Liam Donovan, a former top aide at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said about switching from health to taxes. “Not to say health care isn’t complex, but there’s so many more moving parts in taxes.”

This was the main point I tried to impress. What tax reform lacks in sentimentality it makes up for in sheer complexity and parochial inertia. I’ve touched on this before– tax reform is hard.

I also had the honor of closing out Bernie and Rachel Bade’s obligatory #TRIH piece.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on tax reform. GOP insiders say they have approximately four months to pass a bill before the 2018 election season kicks into high gear in January or February. Passage after that becomes even more precarious, as vulnerable Republicans turn skittish about taking tough votes.

“Time’s the most precious commodity they have,” said Liam Donovan, a former top aide at the National Republican Senatorial Committee who is now legislative director for Associated Builders and Contractors.

Read the full article here.

Bottom line– bona fide tax reform is hard. It may seem more attractive than health care in the sense that nobody is accusing you of taking insurance away from tens of millions of people, but the interests are so entrenched and the financial stakes so high that the trade-offs require a great deal of trust and good faith, two things that are hardly in abundance on Capitol Hill at the moment. Basically Congress is trading health care Jenga for a tax revenue rubix cube. While it’s solvable, success will require coordination and cooperation beyond anything we’ve seen to date.

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Quotes, Radio

WNYC: Chuck Schumer and the Art of Managing Democrats

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I spoke with John O’Connor of WNYC for a segment on Schumer’s stewardship of a purple-tinged caucus in the age of Trump.

Liam Donovan, a former Senate GOP fundraiser who now works for a trade association, said Schumer has nothing to lose if Manchin or other Democrats occasionally break ranks.

“I think he’d gladly let them do whatever they needed to remain in the chamber.”

Donovan said the first eight months have been relatively easy for Schumer because Democrats are united against Trump’s immigration and health-care policies. Donovan said Schumer, who is not known for being camera-shy, has also helped himself by keeping a lower profile than expected.

“Schumer’s done what he needs to do, but he’s avoided becoming the boogeyman that Nancy Pelosi represents,” Donovan said.

But Schumer has also been pushed by activists eager to challenge Trump. Several times Schumer has been pushed by the left — to oppose more Trump nominees, to filibuster Gorsuch and to wage procedural warfare against the health-care bill in an effort to slow down the Senate. Jentleson said Schumer acted when he needed to.

“The measure of the leader is not whether they occasionally need to be pushed or not,” he said. “The measure is do they listen and do they respond?”

Donovan said that energy helps Schumer.

“The activist base of the Democratic Party is incredibly motivated right now and are holding everyone’s feet to the fire,” he said. “So staying together is not really optional at this point.”

Senate Democrats have raised nearly $29 million dollars for the 2018 elections so far — slightly more than Republicans. And neither side has ramped up their spending yet.

The votes will get harder  soon, Donovan said. When they come back,  Congress has things they have to get done — like passing spending bills and raising the debt ceiling. Tough negotiations require  party discipline. And that means Schumer may have  to ask red-state Democrats to stick with the team, even if people back home might not like it.

The full piece (and segment) can be found here.

What I tried to impress (but didn’t make the cut) was that Schumer’s chore would have been much more difficult if not for the President’s initial choices out of the gate. To wit:

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