I spoke to Sam Brodey of the Daily Beast for his piece on the frosty relationship between the US Chamber of Commerce and congressional Republicans and what impact those dynamics might have on the debt limit fight.

In Washington lobbying circles, there’s not much heartburn over what the GOP’s anti-Chamber moment could mean for its posture on the debt limit.

“This GOP majority has a genuine populist streak that informs their pugilistic pose on the debt limit,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican lobbyist. “But even as they’re less receptive to the corporate community than ever, the bulk of the conference understands the grave economic consequences of a default scenario.”

Donovan argued that while the Chamber might be in the “political penalty box,” lawmakers will be moved by business owners in their districts, many of whom are involved in local chambers of commerce with links to the national organization.

“When it gets to be crunch time, you can bet Main Street will pick up the slack,” he said.

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to NBC‘s Alex Seitz-Wald about Governor Glenn Youngkin’s decision to oppose a battery manufacturing facility planned by Ford in partnership with a Chinese company.

“There’s a logic to the politics of Youngkin’s decision,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist and lobbyist. “It tracks with the prevailing tough-on-China sentiment within the party, showcasing a pugilistic side the base craves but that’s otherwise absent from his persona, and seeks to turn a potential vulnerability — Youngkin’s business dealings — into an experience that informs his stance.”

…

“The governor’s record was largely spared from Romney-style attacks on private equity in 2021,” added Donovan, referring to the issue that helped sink Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign. “But foes will seek to exploit it as he seeks the national stage, and he is smart to define his career preemptively and on his own terms.”

Read the full piece here.

While it didn’t make the story, the first point I made was that Youngkin has an argument on the merits–“reports indicate that Ford and CATL were organizing their partnership specifically to tap federal incentives while getting around restrictions designed to keep foreign entities of concern out of the supply chain.”

In Axios‘ Sneak Peak newsletter, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu used my NYT roundtable discussion to frame up the debt limit fight as their 1 Big Thing lead item.

1 big thing: A crisis years in the making

The roots of today’s debt-limit standoff stretch back to 2011, when the Tea Party movement helped force then-President Obama to agree to future spending caps in exchange for lifting the ceiling.

• For Republicans, the achievement “validated one of the animating forces of the right over the past decade-plus — that the party’s failures are a result of weak, feckless leadership, and if they fight, they win,” says GOP strategist Liam Donovan.
• For Democrats, including then-Vice President Joe Biden, the episode demonstrated why they should never negotiate with hostage-takers. 

Driving the news: The Treasury Department has initiated what it calls “extraordinary measures” after the U.S. officially hit its $31.4 trillion debt limit today, giving the Biden administration and Congress six or so months to stave off a catastrophic default.

Read the full post here.

I spoke to Lou Jacobson for his Politifact post on the debt limit fight and how it might be resolved.

• The White House could act unilaterally. The executive branch could mint a platinum coin with a face value of $1 trillion, deposit it in the Federal Reserve, and pay off its financial obligations as normal.

…

During a previous debt limit fight, Obama called the idea “wacky,” and in 2021, Yellen called it a “gimmick.” It’s also unclear whether this would be upheld in the courts.

Ironically, some Republicans might like to see Biden take this path, said Liam Donovan, a principal at the law firm Bracewell.

“It would absolve Republicans of any responsibility, while opening the door to political attacks on Biden’s extra-constitutional overreach,” Donovan said.

…

• A fig leaf solution. The likeliest endgame, experts say, is that the two parties will negotiate a deal that raises the debt limit, but with conditions that Democrats can live with, such as “a good-faith, bipartisan reform to the process that can help Republicans save face without Biden looking like he paid a ransom,” Donovan said. “A small concession is the optimal path because it provides an offramp for the bulk of the Senate conference that doesn’t want a clean hike but also doesn’t have the stomach for going over the brink.”

This would leave lots of tough negotiating for consideration of spending bills later this year, but most observers say that’s a preferable outcome.

Read the full piece here.