Now that the mid-terms are officially over with the Georgia run-off, The Lobby Shop team gathers to get inside Liam Donovan’s brain. We discuss with the Professor of Punditry why there was no red wave, the implications of a GOP-controlled House and the Dems controlling the Senate, the impact of a certain former President, and how the results impact the current lame duck session of Congress and the Biden agenda.
The Lobby Shop Episode #198: Special Election Day Pulse Check
A special Election Day edition of The Lobby Shop! Host Liam Donovan brings you one final PRG Pulse Check for the midterms, as he breaks down the state of play as Americans head to the polls. Liam explores the GOP leaning House, the Senate teetering on a knife’s edge, and the bellwethers to watch in what is sure to be a drawn out aftermath. Finally, make sure to tune into PRG’s post-election webinar tomorrow at 1130am ET to see what it all means for the policy landscape.
The Lobby Shop: Keystone Conversation with Peter Towey
In the latest edition of PRG’s Pulse coverage of the midterm battlegrounds, former Toomey for Senate campaign manager Peter Towey of GOP consulting firm Targeted Victory joins The Lobby Shop team for a Pulse Check on a state both parties have homed in on as the tipping point of the Senate majority. Towey breaks down the state of the race, explains the late resurgence of Dr. Oz, and tracks Pennsylvania’s shift from Blue Wall stalwart to pure bellwether. The gang talks debate expectations, ticket splitting, and pinning down undecided voters with a seasoned pro who has run and won federal races throughout PA for more than a decade.
The Lobby Shop: Battle Born Battleground with Jon Ralston
Nevada: Battle Born Battleground with Jon Ralston
This week’s episode is part of PRG’s Pulse election coverage. Friend of the pod and veteran political journalist Jon Ralston of The Nevada Independent joins The Lobby Shop team for a Pulse Check on what is arguably the most pivotal Senate race in the country. The gang discuss the candidates, political dynamics, demographics, electoral history and more to shed light on why Jon’s #wematter hashtag is more apt than ever.
This episode was also featured in Axios:
🔮 Nevada’s oracle “devastating” threshold
The Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston, renowned nationally for his Nevada election analysis, broke down on The Lobby Shop podcast the key factor that will decide Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s nail-biter against Republican Adam Laxalt:
“The Hispanic vote here in Nevada is somewhere between 20% and 15% of the electorate, depending on what the election cycle is. … I have seen no polling that shows Catherine Cortez Masto with the kind of lead she needs among the Hispanic vote. And their only hope is what Democrats have said to me for years here — that a large percentage of the Hispanic vote makes up its mind late, and are driven to the polls by the Democratic turnout machine. But if she doesn’t get well over 60% of the Hispanic vote, if Laxalt can get 40% or more of the Hispanic vote, I think that’s devastating for her.”
Ralston’s bottom line: “If the first Latina ever elected to the U.S. Senate cannot crush Adam Laxalt in the Hispanic vote, she is going to lose, and that is probably going to be a signal to the rest of the country about what’s going on.”
The Lobby Shop Podcast: The Political Crystal Ball with Sean Trende
This week, The Lobby Shop team is joined by returning guest Sean Trende, a Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics, to talk about the 2022 midterm elections. Tune in as the group offers keen insight into what factors, such as the leaked draft decision from the Supreme Court and Biden’s falling approval ratings, will impact the results.
A few key highlights
On the House map and the impact of redistricting on the midterms:
Here’s the Trende take on the durability of the current House map, and the real possibility of a cascade should Biden go into election night at current approval levels. pic.twitter.com/trUnNHUUhy
— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) June 5, 2022
On the meaning of the generic ballot numbers at this juncture:
On the Hispanic shift toward the GOP, especially along the Rio Grande Valley: