I spoke to POLITICO‘s Matt Dixon about the integral role Florida redistricting and over-performance played in the slim GOP House majority.

Groups trying to get the current maps tossed for future election cycles say that the DeSantis-drawn political lines were always designed with a political endgame in mind.

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But Liam Donovan, a GOP lobbyist, said that if Tallahassee Republicans had their way, Democrats would have the inside track to take the House at this point.

“McCarthy needs to send DeSantis and [Lee] Zeldin fruit baskets,” he said.

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Alex Leary of the Wall Street Journal about the midterm result and what means for former President Donald Trump’s standing within the GOP.

“Republicans are waking up to the fact that he is a net negative for their fortunes,” Republican strategist Liam Donovan said of Mr. Trump. “I don’t think this affects his thinking. He is immovable in that sense. The choice for Republicans is, are we really going to go down this road again?”

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Maggie Haberman of the New York Times about former President Trump’s hand in the GOP’s disappointing midterm result.

“If this proves to be another Senate flop in a year that was otherwise favorable to Republicans — even if not a wave — it will again be a function of the candidates they put up, which was unmistakably shaped and steered by Donald Trump,” said Liam Donovan, a former aide to the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Mr. Donovan noted the possibility of a runoff in the Georgia contest, where Mr. Trump could still demonstrate his pull if Mr. Walker defeats Senator Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent.

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Bloomberg‘s Josh Green for a piece on the political impact of the potential reinstatement of Donald Trump under new Twitter owner Elon Musk.

Back in January, I wrote about what it would take for Democrats to defy historical trends and hold onto the House. Typically, the party that controls the White House loses congressional seats — often dozens of them — in the first midterm after a new president is elected. Everyone agreed it would take something big. And although a Twitter takeover was not yet a gleam in Elon Musk’s eye, Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist, presciently identified Trump’s return to Twitter as being the sort of black swan event that could supercharge Democratic fortunes, since there could be “no bigger midterm wild card than letting the tiger out of its cage.”

It’s too late for a Trump resurrection to help Democrats on Nov. 8. But Donovan remains confident that the same dynamic still holds and could boost Joe Biden — or whoever is the Democratic nominee — two years from now. “What’s the best thing that’s happened for Republicans over the last 18 months?” Donovan asked, when I spoke to him on Friday. “It’s obviously the absence of Donald Trump from the main stage.”

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If Musk carries through with what he’s hinted at and reinstates Trump, the right will celebrate the act as one of the greatest “owns” of liberals ever. It will add immeasurably to Democrats’ unhappiness if Republicans win back Congress. But it may ultimately have nothing like the political effect that Musk and his partisans appear to desire. “It’s going to feel bad, it’s going to touch a lot of nerves on the Democratic side if Trump comes back,” says Donovan. “But anybody taking a longer view should see that it’s beneficial for them to have Trump out there being himself.”

Read the full piece here.