I spoke to Maggie Haberman for her New York Times story with Jonathan Swan on the political implications of the various Trump criminal proceedings.

Yet Mr. Trump was elected in 2016 despite a lengthy trail of negative incidents related to his character. And polls vary on how many of his supporters who say they will back him would abandon him if he is convicted in a criminal case.

“After the past eight years, that self-selection alone is enough to tell you they won’t have much trouble explaining away an adverse legal ruling, let alone one on dubious grounds,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist.

t

Read the full piece here.

It’s a bit too glib to say LOL nothing matters–conviction is bad, full stop, and given the profound closeness of the past two elections, a stiff breeze could swing the electoral college one way or another.

But at the end of the day, the diminishing poll of Trump supporters who tell pollsters they would reconsider in the event of a hypothetical conviction are still people willing to say they’d support Trump. Intuitively that would be a meaningful threshold, and when you dig into the data, these tend to be strong Republican leaners who are likely to come home when faced with a binary choice.

I spoke to Jonathan Nicholson for his Huffington Post piece on the challenge of getting around House leadership to move a bill that otherwise has majority support.

“It’s a dreadfully slow, cumbersome, and brittle process that is not well suited for anything dynamic or urgent,” said Liam Donovan, a former Republican Hill staffer and a partner at lobbying firm Bracewell LLP.

…

Donovan said forcing the Senate bill onto the floor could take at least 40 days using a new discharge petition, and using the petition originally set up for the debt limit would mean sending the bill back to the Senate for final passage, which would also add time.

“In other words, it’s a terrible option that may eventually prove to be the cleanest dirty shirt,” he said. Donovan noted another option for giving aid to Ukraine may be forthcoming negotiations over how to avoid a government shutdown: “The big question in the meantime is how the House deals with regular appropriations, and whether these conversations can be merged.”

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Maggie Haberman for her New York Times piece on the re-emergence of former President Donald Trump in the wake of his Iowa Caucus victory, and how his considerable baggage might play into the general election.

“The overwhelming majority of Americans are aware of Trump’s legal troubles, and a significant number say that a conviction would have some bearing on their vote,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist. “But absent the spectacle of a pre-election trial and adjudication, it’s not clear that awareness is enough in an environment where the former president polls stronger than either of his previous elections.”

Read the full piece here.

My commentary was picked in a piece by Alan Rappeport for the New York Times on the Iowa GOP presidential debate.

Political analysts and pundits observed that the Mr. Trump continued to benefit from staying away from direct engagement with his Republican rivals, with some suggesting that he had delivered a surprisingly “cogent” performance at his event across town, while the tenor of the conversation between Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley often grew caustic and personal as they tiptoed around questions about Mr. Trump’s character. While Ms. Haley avoided any notable stumbles, few thought that she had managed to get the better of Mr. DeSantis.

Here’s a sampling of the reaction.

“Trump decision not to indulge and validate the debate exercise was a shrewd move in its own right, but leaving them to tear each other apart is a nice fringe benefit,” said Liam Donovan, a former member of the staff of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “The little lines and digs might please their backers but it’s really tough to imagine any of this appealing to folks looking to make a decision.”

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Jonathan Nicholson for his Huffington Post piece on the dynamics of the House GOP, and fallout from the topline spending deal announced by Speaker Mike Johnson and Leader Chuck Schumer.

Liam Donovan, a principal with lobbying firm Bracewell LLP, said Johnson is keenly aware of the dynamics in his conference and trying not to antagonize any wing of it. Similarly, he said, Republicans are weary of the image of chaos projected by the speaker battle and have no desire to repeat it.

“Public posturing aside, that should provide the equilibrium necessary to survive coming weeks and months unscathed,” he said.

“Not because the rump that hijacked the chamber in October was sated, chastened, or learned any particular lessons, but because you still can’t put it past them and therefore take nothing for granted,” he said.

Read the full piece here.