I spoke to POLITICO‘s Alex Isenstadt for his story on the fallout from Nikki Haley’s recent misstep on the New Hampshire campaign trail.

“The answer itself doesn’t have to be a huge problem,” said Liam Donovan, a former National Republican Senatorial Committee official. “But the media response tells you the free ride is over, and she’s in for her first taste of adversity.”

The controversy has given particular oxygen to Christie, who in recent weeks has faced questions about whether he will remain in the race. The former New Jersey governor is polling third in some recent New Hampshire surveys, and many top Republicans in the Granite State say he is potentially siphoning off support that could otherwise go to Haley. Christie has insisted he won’t drop out of the race — he released a direct-to-camera ad this week in which he said as much — but the firestorm could give him added incentive to stay in.

“The problem for Haley is that her path to the nomination already amounts to an early state Triple Lindy, and anything that stands to stunt her rise — or, perhaps worse, breathe new life into somebody like Chris Christie — is something she can ill afford,” said Donovan.

…

The lasting effect of the controversy, and the extent to which it registers with voters, is unclear. Her remarks came during a slow week between Christmas and New Year’s Day when, Donovan said, “most normal people have better things to do than follow political news.”

But the dearth of other news this week also focused the media more intently on Haley’s remarks and her attempt to clean them up.

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Alex Roarty for the inaugural story of his upstart outlet NOTUS, the newsroom of the Albritton Journalism Institute. We discussed Dem fears of a Georgia snapback, and the possibility of the Biden campaign seeking to expand the map to North Carolina as an alternative electoral path.

“Hillary went searching in 2016 for her multiple paths, and in some ways, let her guard down on what should have been their wall,” said Liam Donovan, a veteran GOP strategist.

“The tension here is, as the president’s standing looks shaky, what is your inclination? Is it to double down on the places where he won in 2020? Or is it to find creative ways to lean into the emerging Democratic coalition?”

Read the full piece here, and subscribe at NOTUS.org.

I spoke with Maggie Haberman for her New York Times piece with Shane Goldmacher on the inability (or unwillingness) of Donald Trump’s GOP opponents to break out of a 2016 redux.

The primary is obviously not over, despite the Trump team’s attempt to brand it as the race for “first place loser.” Polls often shift late. No votes have been cast. 

Yet Mr. Trump’s fractured opposition, and the persistent focus on one of them emerging as the leading “Trump alternative,” echo the dynamics of his first run in 2016, when his rivals spent millions of dollars on ads attacking each other while he marched to the nomination.

“At least that was a viable strategy then,” said Sarah Isgur, who was a top adviser to Carly Fiorina’s presidential campaign that year. “Because at least if you knocked out everyone, you could have beaten Trump. That’s not true this time. Even if you got a one-on-one race, I don’t see the math.”

Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist, said Mr. Trump’s rivals appeared to be mindlessly repeating the mistakes of the past. “Despite what has amounted to a rerun, Trump’s challengers seem determined not to try anything new at all,” he said.

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Mike Bender of the New York Times for his piece on the politics of the ongoing Speaker vacuum.

The eight Republicans who voted to oust Mr. McCarthy, for example, are likely to face no backlash for plunging the party into disarray. As their message is amplified across conservative media, they’re more likely to see their political stars rise, with a boost in fund-raising and attention.

“What’s happening is you have people who don’t want to be led, but also want to engineer a situation where they can be betrayed and use that to rail against leadership,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist and former National Republican Senatorial Committee aide.

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Molly Ball for her Wall Street Journal profile on Rep. Matt Gaetz amid the fallout from the leadership coup he precipitated.

Whether McCarthy is replaced by a similar figure or a more conservative one, Gaetz wins either way, said Liam Donovan, a Republican lobbyist. If a conservative wins it would make Gaetz a hero to the right; otherwise it would further his argument that the D.C. “cartel” is conspiring to frustrate conservatives’ aims. 

“It just sets up the grievance-based grift that powered him to this point,” Donovan said. “Matt Gaetz can’t do anything but win in this situation.”

Read the full piece here.

In a meta twist, Gaetz himself took to his podcast, Firebrand, to weigh in on the profile, including a disconcerting affirmation of my quote.

Relevant clip below: