I spoke to Alex Roarty for the inaugural story of his upstart outlet NOTUS, the newsroom of the Albritton Journalism Institute. We discussed Dem fears of a Georgia snapback, and the possibility of the Biden campaign seeking to expand the map to North Carolina as an alternative electoral path.

“Hillary went searching in 2016 for her multiple paths, and in some ways, let her guard down on what should have been their wall,” said Liam Donovan, a veteran GOP strategist.

“The tension here is, as the president’s standing looks shaky, what is your inclination? Is it to double down on the places where he won in 2020? Or is it to find creative ways to lean into the emerging Democratic coalition?”

Read the full piece here, and subscribe at NOTUS.org.

I spoke with Maggie Haberman for her New York Times piece with Shane Goldmacher on the inability (or unwillingness) of Donald Trump’s GOP opponents to break out of a 2016 redux.

The primary is obviously not over, despite the Trump team’s attempt to brand it as the race for “first place loser.” Polls often shift late. No votes have been cast. 

Yet Mr. Trump’s fractured opposition, and the persistent focus on one of them emerging as the leading “Trump alternative,” echo the dynamics of his first run in 2016, when his rivals spent millions of dollars on ads attacking each other while he marched to the nomination.

“At least that was a viable strategy then,” said Sarah Isgur, who was a top adviser to Carly Fiorina’s presidential campaign that year. “Because at least if you knocked out everyone, you could have beaten Trump. That’s not true this time. Even if you got a one-on-one race, I don’t see the math.”

Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist, said Mr. Trump’s rivals appeared to be mindlessly repeating the mistakes of the past. “Despite what has amounted to a rerun, Trump’s challengers seem determined not to try anything new at all,” he said.

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Mike Bender of the New York Times for his piece on the politics of the ongoing Speaker vacuum.

The eight Republicans who voted to oust Mr. McCarthy, for example, are likely to face no backlash for plunging the party into disarray. As their message is amplified across conservative media, they’re more likely to see their political stars rise, with a boost in fund-raising and attention.

“What’s happening is you have people who don’t want to be led, but also want to engineer a situation where they can be betrayed and use that to rail against leadership,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist and former National Republican Senatorial Committee aide.

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Molly Ball for her Wall Street Journal profile on Rep. Matt Gaetz amid the fallout from the leadership coup he precipitated.

Whether McCarthy is replaced by a similar figure or a more conservative one, Gaetz wins either way, said Liam Donovan, a Republican lobbyist. If a conservative wins it would make Gaetz a hero to the right; otherwise it would further his argument that the D.C. “cartel” is conspiring to frustrate conservatives’ aims. 

“It just sets up the grievance-based grift that powered him to this point,” Donovan said. “Matt Gaetz can’t do anything but win in this situation.”

Read the full piece here.

In a meta twist, Gaetz himself took to his podcast, Firebrand, to weigh in on the profile, including a disconcerting affirmation of my quote.

Relevant clip below:

I spoke to Story Hinckley for her Christian Science Monitor piece on the speaker chaos within the House GOP.

But rather than opposing a temporary speakership on procedural grounds, the departure here between Mr. Jordan’s statement and the responses by “Jordaneers” proves that the Ohio Republican’s speakership fight is a useful instrument in and of itself, says Liam Donovan, a former staffer for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and now a lobbyist.

“Jordan doesn’t want to lose, but if you are Jordan’s backers, you are fine with him losing if you get to kick and scream about the ‘DC cartel’ keeping conservatives from winning,” says Mr. Donovan. “They are setting up options that only fulfill their narrative.”

Read the full piece here.