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Liam Donovan

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Television

Morning Joe Debut (Sort Of)

August 25, 2016 No Comments

Ok fine, so it’s a tweet, but it still counts.

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About Liam

Liam Donovan is President at Targeted Victory, where he helps corporate leaders navigate politics, policy, and reputational risk in a changing Washington. He has spent more than two decades at the intersection of campaigns, advocacy, and communications, and his analysis is widely sought after by staffers, reporters, and executives alike.

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Politics. Hoyas. YMMV. Views expressed are mine alone, obviously. @TargetedVictory

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seantrende

Sean T at RCP

Verified account @seantrende ·
12h

Part of the problem with EV analysis is, as this suggests, the proper baseline. But the bigger problem is what it means. Few think Rs are in for a *good* night. It's "bad" vs "historically bad." Would this mean "historically bad"? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Just very hard to interpret.

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siegelscribe

Joshua Siegel

@siegelscribe ·
22 Oct

More on Trump's goodwill wind move in Midday: A Senate GOP aide called the action “encouraging" and stressed BAAJA would prevent wild swings in permitting decisions. "What we’re going to get back to is a normal and fair permitting process for everybody,” the aide told me

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lpdonovan

Liam Donovan

Verified account @lpdonovan ·
21 Oct

I fully believe that this is a real risk and/but even if the polling is systematically missing Rs, a thumb on the scale in the screen isn't going to fix what ails when the issue is a fundamentally unrepresentative sample.

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But it's an example of the phenomenon I wrote about yesterday. Pollsters are very aware of missing low on R's in 2016/20/24. They might still be undercompensating. They also might be overcompensating. Either seems about equally likely at this point.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/my-pet-peeve-about-the-polling-error
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Liam Donovan

Verified account @lpdonovan ·
21 Oct

Ought to pin this until they get back for the lame duck. I'm sure there's a defensible rationale for the latest OSW maneuvers, but even if the lead negotiators give you the benefit of the doubt, it makes their job harder while providing an easy offramp to Ds looking to get to no.

Liam Donovan @LPDonovan

The biggest impediment to getting this done--beyond the perceived incentives, which are surely part of the calculus here--has always been mutual trust and good faith among the negotiators. A stunt like this really puts a strain on the working relationship that got them here.
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