I spoke to Politico‘s Sam Stein in the wake of the breakdown of reconciliation talks between Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

But beyond the quickly-forming consensus that the current trajectory was unavoidable is a secondary conclusion, one far more biting for the White House. And that is they were painfully slow to recognize this reality, sacrificing time and political capital in the process.

It’s a synopsis espoused by the right, which has relished watching the Democratic faceplant that transpired.

LIAM DONOVAN, a GOP operative who has followed the BBB negotiations like an aspiring rabbi engaged in Talmudic studies, argued that Democratic leadership erred in managing expectations, making it virtually impossible for the party to agree to Manchin’s demands.

“They promised the world to everybody and every step of the way was essentially a confidence game to elide all the mistrust,” Donovan said, dubbing the strategy a political version of “fake it till you make it.”

Read the full piece here.

Greg Sargent, author of the Plum Line at the Washington Post, cites (and links) my note as a devil’s advocate for Manchin’s motives in an otherwise scathing piece.

A sympathetic reading of Manchin’s motives goes like this. As someone who represents a state that’s both deep red and relies on fossil fuels, he has understandably sought a balance. He’s open to the government facilitating innovation that aids the transition to green energy, but only if it does not inflict damage too quickly on the traditional energy sector or the people reliant on it.

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to McClatchy‘s Dave Catanese about the the bipartisan gun safety package and decision of Senate GOP leadership to pursue and ultimately support such a deal.

“[John] Cornyn and McConnell are both realists and I think they went into this eyes open, with no illusions about how popular this might be with the base,” said Liam Donovan, a former Republican Senate campaign operative turned Washington lobbyist. “They’ve made a good faith effort to address the problem in common sense ways that voters broadly support.”

…

Donovan surmised that even though the loudest voices on the right are angered, the GOP leader sees a political upside.

He now has another significant vote in his pocket that he can hold up when Democrats complain the filibuster needs to be broken or amended to accomplish a legislative goal.

“Base blowback is a sunk cost having pursued a deal,” said Donovan. “You have to balance the prospect of a divisive vote with the fact that this is their last best chance to take the issue off the table for the foreseeable future, and on relatively favorable terms.”

Read the full piece here.

I spoke with NBC‘s Sahil Kapur about the bipartisan gun safety framework in the Senate, and what it says about the shifting political and strategic calculations of Republican leadership.

Liam Donovan, a lobbyist and former Republican campaign operative, attributed the intra-party shift to a growing prevalence of mass shootings and a “realignment of the GOP coalition.”

“Suburban Romney voters who had once been squarely part of the base are now up for grabs, if not beginning to lean Democrat, and this is the sort of issue that could make a big difference at the margin, both in the midterms and going forward,” Donovan said.

Read the full piece here.

It didn’t make the piece, but another important factor here is the limited window for such a deal to occur. A potential GOP Senate would be unlikely to lead on anything in this realm, to say nothing of the anticipated Republican majority in the House. This is a unique opportunity to defuse a key issue with just a fraction of the conference, with the added bonus of gumming up the legislative calendar at a make or break time for other Democratic priorities.

10yrs down the road of more incidents, more urgency/salience + accelerating realignment of the suburbs as a political matter is what changes the dynamics, and I think Sahil lays the predicate well. One missing link: this is the last best chance for Rs to take it off the table.

— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) June 16, 2022