NYT: White House Worries About Kelly Loeffler’s Senate Prospects in Georgia

I spoke to Jonathan Martin of the New York Times about GOP challenges in the Georgia Senate special election.

Some Republicans believe that the easiest way for Ms. Loeffler to turn around her campaign would be for Mr. Trump to support her.

“Most of this could be absolved or at least elided if President Trump was on board,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist.

But Mr. Donovan acknowledged that Ms. Loeffler was in something of a vise.

“The entire logic of picking Kelly was predicated on ‘we’re losing the suburbs, so you pick a Buckhead mom to win back Buckhead moms,’” he said, alluding to the tony Atlanta enclave. “But that’s only tenable if you don’t have to squander your potential outflanking Doug Collins for Fox News dads.”

Read the full piece here.

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AP: Infrastructure often embraced by both parties, to no avail

I spoke to Alan Fram of the Associated Press about nascent House infrastructure efforts in the context of the Congressional Covid response.

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump wants to spend $2 trillion on infrastructure projects to create jobs and help the collapsing economy rebuild from stunning blows of the coronavirus pandemic. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says that seems about right.

Yet even with both sides agreeing that infrastructure can be a reliable way of creating jobs and modernizing systems that themselves add muscle to the economy, it’s unclear they can reach an election-year compromise.

“A lot of this is theater, staking out the high ground for the fight that’s coming,’’ said Liam Donovan, a lobbyist who’s specialized in infrastructure work.

Read the full piece here.

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WaPo: Struggling U.S. oil companies hope for more economic help in next coronavirus stimulus package

I spoke to Dino Grandoni of the Washington Post about Congress’ decision to scrap SPR funding in the CARES Act and what they might do to provide the energy sector relief in future phases.

But the push to buy oil to replenish the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve could come up again as Congress is expected to take up another stimulus package next month in response to the deadly pandemic.

“That’s when you can slow down the legislative process and not throw together a trillion-dollar bill in a week,” said Liam Donovan, an energy lobbyist at the Washington-based firm Bracewell.

After the bill became law without the oil money, the Energy Department scrapped plans to buy 77 million barrels to reload the emergency oil stockpile — a move the Trump administration had said was prudent since the price of West Texas Intermediate has dropped by 65 percent since the start of the year.

Though that amount of oil is small for a nation that consumes about 20 million barrels of petroleum per day, the federal government’s purchase would have been a “signal to the industry” that more help was on the way, Donovan said. It could have also been a way for the federal government to make money, by buying oil while prices are low and selling it when they are high again.

Read the full piece here.

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Cheddar: Solar, Wind Taking Aim at Coronavirus Stimulus Measures for Oil

I spoke to Cheddar‘s Alan Neuhauser about the simmering effort to attach renewable energy incentives to Congressional Covid response legislation.

Until this week, renewable energy and electric vehicles had not been seen as a stimulus priority among Democrats in either the House or the Senate. When senior lawmakers last week hastily appointed “task forces” to negotiate different aspects of expected stimulus measures, none of the groups focused on the issue of energy. “That told you that anything energy-targeted was not being given front-burner consideration,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican lobbyist specializing in tax policy and energy at Bracewell. 

However, the topic burst into public view late Monday morning, when Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)., vented frustration with Democratic opposition to Republican-backed stimulus proposals. McConnell took to the Senate floor to lambaste efforts to insert provisions for solar and wind energy, among other green initiatives, in exchange for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve funding.

Green energy and EVs advocates and trade groups have been taking a “two-tier” approach to the negotiations: Solar and wind developers are looking for immediate assistance for current projects, namely an extension to collect crucial tax credits that will otherwise expire as the projects are delayed due to restrictions imposed as a result of the coronavirus or from the financial crisis. They hope to push Democratic lawmakers to condition their support for funding of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on support for renewables.

“Even though it’s not on paper anywhere, these are being talked about in the room. And the way they came up is that there’s money in there for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve so Democrats are trying to leverage something out of that,” Donovan said.

The effort, though, faces significant headwinds: A chorus of industries from restaurants to retail to airlines are seeking federal support. A roughly 1,100-page stimulus package shared Monday by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), notably makes no mention of renewables or EVs — indicating that, even among Democrats, even rudimentary measures to aid green businesses are not yet a priority issue.

“When that leaked out without any clean energy provisions, that told me that that wasn’t in play,” Donovan said. 

Read the full piece here.

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What to Watch on Super Tuesday

We enter Super Tuesday with a race as wide open as any we’ve seen–it’s as if you replayed a bizarro version of 2016 but with an untested walk-on candidate who had previously existed only on paper (give or take a half a billion dollars in paid advertising.)

If Biden continues the breakaway pace we have seen over the past 48 hours, he is going to be hard to stop, whether by Bernie or anyone else. If Bloomberg manages to hold his poll numbers, or perhaps even add to them with the exit of Amy and Pete, this is a very different race. And if Bernie can withstand the Biden resurgence, rack up delegates, and emerge with a three digit margin, the race might come full circle in a little less than 72 hours.

Below is my curve for judging the returns:

It sure feels like a big Biden night is in order, but I guess that’s why they play the games.

And for good measure, here is my squad at the polls.

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