The Dispatch Podcast: White Flags and Olive Branches

I sat down with my friend Mike Warren of The Dispatch for an interview on the debt limit standoff, the surprising success of House Republicans, and where things go from here.

I did a lengthy thread breaking our talk down down on twitter.

Listen to the full episode here:

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy secured a bill raising the debt limit this week, sealing a crucial win for House Republicans. Liam Donovan, veteran government relations specialist, joins Mike to break down the strategy behind House leadership: from negotiations with the “Five Families” to Steve Scalise being a “bit player” for McCarthy.

Show Notes:

-Watch: Mike Warren interviews Liam Donovan

-Warren’s Debt Ceiling article for The Dispatch

-Liam Donovan’s Substack

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Bloomberg: One Neat Trick to Raise the Debt Limit

I spoke to Bloomberg’s Josh Green about the debt limit fight, public opinion, and the political implications of potential executive action to avoid default.

In Washington, insiders have started taking the idea semi-seriously. “I think it’s not gotten enough attention,” says Liam Donovan, a Republican lobbyist and debt-ceiling expert. “If you look at the White House position, they kind of have to be prepared to act unilaterally or they’re setting themselves up to look pretty foolish. It’s a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ answer.”

Still, there’s an argument that Biden just minting the coin and taking heat for it would be the best outcome for everyone—including Republicans, who can’t even agree on a ransom demand. “If Biden were willing to take the debt limit off their plate and spare them from taking a painful vote (and/or a humiliating L), that’s just as well,” Donovan says. “Unilateral action by the administration also puts them back in their comfort zone, where they can push back on the White House’s fiscal recklessness and constitutional overreach, a small political price for Biden if it ends the charade once and for all.” Criticizing Biden is the Republicans’ safe space. Minting the coin would also let future Republican presidents off the hook since, like the Wicked Witch in The Wizard of Oz, killing off the debt limit would rid the country of its decades-long reign of terror.

Read the full piece here.

As I told Josh and laid out in my debt limit explainer, I don’t believe minting the coin would be the preferred option of the administration, but unilateral action is a key variable that has not received nearly enough attention. Indeed, Biden’s appetite for confrontation with Republicans likely hinges on his willingness to pursue such a go-it-alone strategy, even as a last resort.

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NYT: Don’t Call It a ‘Cut’: G.O.P. Tries to Rebrand Its Plan to Reduce Spending

I spoke to Catie Edmondson for her New York Times piece on the similarities and striking differences between the House GOP bargaining position during the 2011 debt limit standoff and today.

In 2011, House Republican leaders were so resolute in their demand that President Barack Obama accept deep spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling that they put a clean debt limit increase on the House floor just to unanimously vote it down. Few Republicans now would relish taking that vote.

“Part of the reason they’ve softened some of the edges — is it’s a different time, it’s a different moment,” said Liam Donovan, a veteran Republican strategist. “There was an acknowledgment coming out of 2010 that Obama was going to have to yield, that there was a referendum toward curbing spending. That is not only not present here, but if anything, there is disagreement even within Republican ranks as to whether that’s prudent.”

Read the full piece here.

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Liam’s Comprehensive Look at the Debt Limit State of Play

While I have sounded off about the debt limit prolifically on twitter, on CNN, on SiriusXM, in Axios (2), the Washington Post, Semafor (2), the Huffington Post, the Daily Beast, PolitiFact, and probably a bunch of other places I can’t think of right now, the closest thing I have come to a long form take is this heavily edited discussion with the New York Times.

I finally broke down and wrote an exhaustive look at the issue in the form of a Q & A.

Read the full piece here.

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NYT: DeSantis Faces Republican Scrutiny on Issues While Trump Skates By

I spoke to Maggie Haberman for her New York Times piece on the generous curve Republican voters grade Donald Trump on, and the double standard that applies to conventional politicians, most recently Gov. Ron DeSantis.

“He has never adhered to the unwritten rules of electoral politics, and he has cemented his MAGA brand by openly flouting them,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist. “In 2016, Trump was exempt from the punitive standards we hold conventional politicians to, and what’s remarkable is that seven years and a presidential term later, that still holds true.”

Voters, Mr. Donovan said, see Mr. Trump “differently, and make exceptions, consciously or otherwise, for his statements and his behavior.”

Read the full piece here.

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