GOP Operative Turned Advocate and Political Observer
I appeared on CNN Tonight with Lauren Coates and a panel that included Democratic strategist Maria Cardova and a revolving seat of PBS’ Laura Barron-Lopez, former RNC aide Doug Heye, and tech journalist Kara Swisher.
Midterm Discussion
Twitter Layoffs
Trump 2024 Chatter
Daylight Savings
I spoke to CNN‘s Mike Warren about the tensions between Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and NRSC Chair Rick Scott.
As the midterm elections come to a close, Scott’s ambitious push to win a big, sweeping majority on a conservative policy agenda is in a stress test against McConnell’s more restrained goal of simply winning control.
“McConnell wants to be leader,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican lobbyist. “Scott wants to be a legend.”
Read the full piece here.
Watch a clip of Mike talking about this story here.
I spoke to Bloomberg‘s Josh Green for a piece on the political impact of the potential reinstatement of Donald Trump under new Twitter owner Elon Musk.
Back in January, I wrote about what it would take for Democrats to defy historical trends and hold onto the House. Typically, the party that controls the White House loses congressional seats — often dozens of them — in the first midterm after a new president is elected. Everyone agreed it would take something big. And although a Twitter takeover was not yet a gleam in Elon Musk’s eye, Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist, presciently identified Trump’s return to Twitter as being the sort of black swan event that could supercharge Democratic fortunes, since there could be “no bigger midterm wild card than letting the tiger out of its cage.”
It’s too late for a Trump resurrection to help Democrats on Nov. 8. But Donovan remains confident that the same dynamic still holds and could boost Joe Biden — or whoever is the Democratic nominee — two years from now. “What’s the best thing that’s happened for Republicans over the last 18 months?” Donovan asked, when I spoke to him on Friday. “It’s obviously the absence of Donald Trump from the main stage.”
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If Musk carries through with what he’s hinted at and reinstates Trump, the right will celebrate the act as one of the greatest “owns” of liberals ever. It will add immeasurably to Democrats’ unhappiness if Republicans win back Congress. But it may ultimately have nothing like the political effect that Musk and his partisans appear to desire. “It’s going to feel bad, it’s going to touch a lot of nerves on the Democratic side if Trump comes back,” says Donovan. “But anybody taking a longer view should see that it’s beneficial for them to have Trump out there being himself.”
Read the full piece here.
In the latest edition of PRG’s Pulse coverage of the midterm battlegrounds, former Toomey for Senate campaign manager Peter Towey of GOP consulting firm Targeted Victory joins The Lobby Shop team for a Pulse Check on a state both parties have homed in on as the tipping point of the Senate majority. Towey breaks down the state of the race, explains the late resurgence of Dr. Oz, and tracks Pennsylvania’s shift from Blue Wall stalwart to pure bellwether. The gang talks debate expectations, ticket splitting, and pinning down undecided voters with a seasoned pro who has run and won federal races throughout PA for more than a decade.
Nevada: Battle Born Battleground with Jon Ralston
This week’s episode is part of PRG’s Pulse election coverage. Friend of the pod and veteran political journalist Jon Ralston of The Nevada Independent joins The Lobby Shop team for a Pulse Check on what is arguably the most pivotal Senate race in the country. The gang discuss the candidates, political dynamics, demographics, electoral history and more to shed light on why Jon’s #wematter hashtag is more apt than ever.
This episode was also featured in Axios:
🔮 Nevada’s oracle “devastating” threshold
The Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston, renowned nationally for his Nevada election analysis, broke down on The Lobby Shop podcast the key factor that will decide Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s nail-biter against Republican Adam Laxalt:
“The Hispanic vote here in Nevada is somewhere between 20% and 15% of the electorate, depending on what the election cycle is. … I have seen no polling that shows Catherine Cortez Masto with the kind of lead she needs among the Hispanic vote. And their only hope is what Democrats have said to me for years here — that a large percentage of the Hispanic vote makes up its mind late, and are driven to the polls by the Democratic turnout machine. But if she doesn’t get well over 60% of the Hispanic vote, if Laxalt can get 40% or more of the Hispanic vote, I think that’s devastating for her.”
Ralston’s bottom line: “If the first Latina ever elected to the U.S. Senate cannot crush Adam Laxalt in the Hispanic vote, she is going to lose, and that is probably going to be a signal to the rest of the country about what’s going on.”