I spoke to CNN‘s Eric Bradner about the Breyer vacancy and the political opportunity the nomination presents to President Biden and his party.

“It’s a timely morale boost for a White House and a party that desperately needs something to cheer about,” said Republican strategist Liam Donovan. “But who is on the Supreme Court will have far less of an impact on the midterms than how the court stands to rule on key cases during their next term.

“The real potential upside for Democrats, Donovan added, was the opening now for Biden’s overall standing to improve — that if a Supreme Court nomination battle and confirmation can bring those who have wavered on the party back into its fold “and get his (approval) numbers out of the low 40s, that’s a big deal.”

“The flip side of this is that there’s not much value for (Republicans) in dragging this out or getting into a personal or divisive confirmation battle, so it’s in everybody’s interest for things to go relatively smoothly,” he said. 

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Business Insider‘s Brent Griffiths about former President Trump’s efforts to displace GOP Leader Mitch McConnell.

“[I]t’s all moot when McConnell retains the leader post by acclamation,” GOP strategist Liam Donovan told Insider, pointing out that since 2007 McConnell has never once been contested for his top job since his colleagues unanimously elected him.

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Bloomberg Businessweek‘s Joshua Green about what would have to happen for Democrats to have a fighting chance to defy history and maintain the House majority through the midterm election.

Any upset would be predicated on one thing: a return to normalcy. Insiders agree that inflation would have to fall and Covid subside to the point where schools stay open and masks are an afterthought. “It needs to feel like 2019, not 2021,” says Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist.

…

As much as Democrats might loathe the prospect of his return, Trump could plausibly short-circuit historical voting patterns by sowing discord within his party and sabotaging Republican voter enthusiasm. To defy predictions, Democrats probably need him to be a high-profile negative factor in the months leading up to the election.

Donovan has a theory about how that might occur. “For the last year, Trump has been in a straitjacket where he can’t harm his own party,” he says. “With Jack Dorsey [the former Twitter Inc. chief executive officer] leaving, maybe he gets back on Twitter.”

That would vault Trump back into the public spotlight. And then, who knows? Says Donovan, “There’s no bigger midterm wild card than letting the tiger out of its cage.”

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to Jess Bidgood of The Boston Globe about GOP Senate recruitment efforts and how that factors into the party’s opportunity to take back the majority in November.

“It’s such an odd moment for the party,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican lobbyist who worked for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.“We’re not quite post-Trump, we’re mid-Trump. I think until we can fully turn the page, there’s going to be a lot of people who keep their powder dry.

Read the full piece here.