I spoke to Sam Stein of the Daily Beast about the President’s fortunes and its impact on downballot Republicans:

Trump’s refusal to modify his base-only approach has had ramifications down the ballot. Senate Republicans, GOP operatives concede, could theoretically stand to benefit from presenting themselves to voters as a bulwark against a likely Biden presidency. But they’ve been remarkably reluctant to do so. And those strategists argue that it’s because they have concluded that their own fates are tied to the enthusiasm of Trump’s base.

“To the extent these [Senate] races remain a presidential referendum by proxy, Republicans carry all of Trump’s baggage in the eyes of his haters without necessarily generating the same enthusiasm or recognition among his supporters,” said Liam Donovan, a former aide at the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Unless and until it becomes a choice between the candidates—or a check on full Democratic control—the Senate majority will only go as far as the president’s performance can carry it.” 

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to CNN‘s Mike Warren about the Trump campaign’s decision to go all in on their “law and order” message as we head into the home stretch.

But not all Republicans agree that Trump’s push to override the wishes of state and local leaders will help him make inroads with swing voters he needs to win over: college-educated suburban voters who swung to the Democrats in the 2018 midterms.

The crime crackdown is “great for the 40% (of voters) they already have,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican consultant and strategist. “Making that your closing argument when everything is upside down and the campaign is coming apart at the seams means you’ve lost the plot.”

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to CNN‘s Ron Brownstein about the Trump campaign’s inability to land a glove on Joe Biden, and what it portends for November.

Trump’s deficit now “is not something you can tactically maneuver out of,” says Liam Donovan, a Republican consultant. “There has to be some kind of fundamental inflection point that gives people hope or reassurance that some form of normalcy will return.”

Put another way, Trump at this point appears to be running not so much against Biden as against the pandemic. And — as caseloads and hospitalizations soar, the death toll ticks up and the economy remains in turmoil — the pandemic is decisively winning that confrontation.

…

Biden’s vote share against Trump did more closely track his favorability among some groups — including college-educated whites and seniors — but overall the results underscore the conclusion of analysts in both parties such as Donovan, who says flatly: “It’s not going to be a race about Joe Biden. It’s going to be a race about the President and how he is comporting himself down the stretch.”

Read the full piece here.

While you’re at it, check out my discussion with Ron exploring this and 2020 more broadly on this week’s episode of The Lobby Shop.

I spoke to Maggie Haberman of the New York Times about President Trump’s often clumsy efforts to articulate what Republicans believe.

Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist and former National Republican Senatorial Committee aide, said that Mr. Trump’s “preternatural ability to sniff out and tap into what Republicans hate” got him to the Oval Office.

“His intimate connection with the base is one of shared grievance,” Mr. Donovan said. “But when it comes to what they’re for, it inevitably comes off like a cartoon version of what a New York billionaire would think conservatives believe.”

Read the full piece here.