I spoke with POLITICO‘s Bernie Becker about the difficulty of tax reform and the comments were spread between a couple different pieces.

First, the Morning Tax tipsheet:

But it’s also fair to point out that health care and tax reform don’t exactly present the same challenges, especially given how invested Republicans became in repealing Obamacare over the last seven-plus years. “You’ve traded that emotional complexity for substantive complexity,” Liam Donovan, a former top aide at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said about switching from health to taxes. “Not to say health care isn’t complex, but there’s so many more moving parts in taxes.”

This was the main point I tried to impress. What tax reform lacks in sentimentality it makes up for in sheer complexity and parochial inertia. I’ve touched on this before– tax reform is hard.

Reminder: tax reform is hard. https://t.co/masohGjxFt pic.twitter.com/UJOjhktlai

— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) April 23, 2017

I also had the honor of closing out Bernie and Rachel Bade’s obligatory #TRIH piece.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on tax reform. GOP insiders say they have approximately four months to pass a bill before the 2018 election season kicks into high gear in January or February. Passage after that becomes even more precarious, as vulnerable Republicans turn skittish about taking tough votes.

“Time’s the most precious commodity they have,” said Liam Donovan, a former top aide at the National Republican Senatorial Committee who is now legislative director for Associated Builders and Contractors.

Read the full article here.

Bottom line– bona fide tax reform is hard. It may seem more attractive than health care in the sense that nobody is accusing you of taking insurance away from tens of millions of people, but the interests are so entrenched and the financial stakes so high that the trade-offs require a great deal of trust and good faith, two things that are hardly in abundance on Capitol Hill at the moment. Basically Congress is trading health care Jenga for a tax revenue rubix cube. While it’s solvable, success will require coordination and cooperation beyond anything we’ve seen to date.

I spoke to The Guardian‘s Ben Jacobs for Lauren Gambino‘s article on the state of play in Nevada’s US Senate race.

Liam Donovan, a former operative at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Tarkanian is less a threat to Heller in the primary as he is an urgent distraction from what promises to be a grueling general election race. Donovan noted that the Nevada Republican is “already among the only targets that Democrats have and is going to have a lot thrown at him”.

Read the full piece here.

Tarkanian’s entry into the race is hardly a good thing for Heller. Anything with the potential to drain resources and take your eye of the general election ball is counterproductive. That said, Tarkanian is a 5-time loser with a trail of personal baggage and debt, one who just happens to have a famous last name. And with Heller falling into line on health care after a shot across the bow from Trump political allies, even the predicate for Tark’s candidacy is underwhelming. Short of unanticipated White House involvement I suspect it will look a lot like the 2016 race where fellow retread Susan Angle tried a comeback and failed to get traction. In the end Senator Heller has more to fear from Trump-related political tension and the state’s dreaded “None of These Candidates” line than he does Danny Tarkanian.

I indulged GQ‘s Jason Zengerle for his look into a hypothetical Pence administration.

In fact, one can imagine many of the big G.O.P. agenda items—from health care to a massive tax-reform plan—would likely remain out of Pence’s grasp, just as they have for Trump. “There might be reasons to root for a President Pence,” says the G.O.P. strategist Liam Donovan, “but the idea that you’re going to pass tax cuts or anything else is incredibly naive. A Pence presidency won’t send things back to normal.”

Read the whole thing here.

I’ve touched on this before. Bottom line– Trump is not going anywhere, and even if he somehow did, things don’t magically go back to normal for his successor. There are no circumstances under which Trump leaves before his term is up and the legislative landscape somehow improves.

You'd also have to suspend disbelief to a) find the grounds, b) find the votes, and c) not rip the party into a bloody stump in the process.

— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) May 17, 2017

FWIW the legislative landscape of post-intraparty impeachment is downright apocalyptic. May not be worse, but it's not gonna get any better.

— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) May 17, 2017

I spoke with POLITICO‘s Colin Wilhelm about the Senate Dem tax reform letter and the meaning of the handful of holdouts.

Liam Donovan, a former National Republican Senatorial Committee staffer who now handles legislative and political affairs for the Associated Builders and Contractors, said estate tax repeal — which Republicans have promised to include in their effort — could be floated as a carrot in front of vulnerable Democrats like Manchin, Heitkamp and Donnelly to bring them to the table. Manchin was the lone Democrat to cross the aisle on a 2015 bill to repeal the estate tax.

But, “at the end of the day I don’t expect them to be there,” said Donovan.

Read the whole piece here.