I spoke to David Freedlander for his POLITICO Magazine story on the nascent 2024 primary and how the GOP establishment might avoid a reprise of the splintered field that delivered the nomination to Donald Trump.

There may be no convening authority, but there are conversations among donors and party activists who point to how on the other side of the aisle, in 2020, nearly the entire remaining Democratic field dropped out almost at the same time and endorsed Biden. Republicans fret that there is no equivalent of a Nancy Pelosi or a Jim Clyburn in their party who can apply pressure to the dreams of would-be presidents. Still, donors are talking now about pooling money together once the primary gets under way in earnest and a true Trump alternative emerges.

“Donors have wised up,” said Liam Donovan, a GOP strategist. “That is the main control mechanism. There is not going to be oxygen for a lot of these guys, and there are not going to be resources.”

There is already some movement along these lines.

Read the full piece here.

Axios’ Sneak Peek newsletter used a tweet of mine for a news item on the GOP’s approach to the Trump 2024 candidacy.

The Atlantic’s McKay Coppins is out with a piece that captures the central theme of the 2024 GOP primary so far:

• The vast majority of Republicans desperately want to move on from Trump, but none seem to know exactly how to get rid of him.
• Their do-nothing strategy is predicated on “hope” that Trump will be taken out by legal troubles, a donor revolt, boredom with politics — or perhaps something more morbid.

Why it matters: The last three election cycles have bolstered the view that Trump is a liability for Republicans, and his behavior is only growing more erratic.

• Republicans may be able to ignore Trump while his grievances are confined to the MAGA echo chamber that is Truth Social, as GOP strategist Liam Donovan points out.
• But that “ostrich routine” will become less sustainable as Trump ramps up his campaign travel and potentially returns to Facebook and Twitter.

Read the full newsletter here.

I spoke to Sam Brodey of the Daily Beast for his piece on the frosty relationship between the US Chamber of Commerce and congressional Republicans and what impact those dynamics might have on the debt limit fight.

In Washington lobbying circles, there’s not much heartburn over what the GOP’s anti-Chamber moment could mean for its posture on the debt limit.

“This GOP majority has a genuine populist streak that informs their pugilistic pose on the debt limit,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican lobbyist. “But even as they’re less receptive to the corporate community than ever, the bulk of the conference understands the grave economic consequences of a default scenario.”

Donovan argued that while the Chamber might be in the “political penalty box,” lawmakers will be moved by business owners in their districts, many of whom are involved in local chambers of commerce with links to the national organization.

“When it gets to be crunch time, you can bet Main Street will pick up the slack,” he said.

Read the full piece here.

I spoke to NBC‘s Alex Seitz-Wald about Governor Glenn Youngkin’s decision to oppose a battery manufacturing facility planned by Ford in partnership with a Chinese company.

“There’s a logic to the politics of Youngkin’s decision,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist and lobbyist. “It tracks with the prevailing tough-on-China sentiment within the party, showcasing a pugilistic side the base craves but that’s otherwise absent from his persona, and seeks to turn a potential vulnerability — Youngkin’s business dealings — into an experience that informs his stance.”

…

“The governor’s record was largely spared from Romney-style attacks on private equity in 2021,” added Donovan, referring to the issue that helped sink Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign. “But foes will seek to exploit it as he seeks the national stage, and he is smart to define his career preemptively and on his own terms.”

Read the full piece here.

While it didn’t make the story, the first point I made was that Youngkin has an argument on the merits–“reports indicate that Ford and CATL were organizing their partnership specifically to tap federal incentives while getting around restrictions designed to keep foreign entities of concern out of the supply chain.”

In Axios‘ Sneak Peak newsletter, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu used my NYT roundtable discussion to frame up the debt limit fight as their 1 Big Thing lead item.

1 big thing: A crisis years in the making

The roots of today’s debt-limit standoff stretch back to 2011, when the Tea Party movement helped force then-President Obama to agree to future spending caps in exchange for lifting the ceiling.

• For Republicans, the achievement “validated one of the animating forces of the right over the past decade-plus — that the party’s failures are a result of weak, feckless leadership, and if they fight, they win,” says GOP strategist Liam Donovan.
• For Democrats, including then-Vice President Joe Biden, the episode demonstrated why they should never negotiate with hostage-takers. 

Driving the news: The Treasury Department has initiated what it calls “extraordinary measures” after the U.S. officially hit its $31.4 trillion debt limit today, giving the Biden administration and Congress six or so months to stave off a catastrophic default.

Read the full post here.