Liam Donovan

The Atlantic: How Both Parties Lost the Texas Senate Race

November 8, 2018 No Comments

I spoke with Elaina Plott of The Atlantic about the Texas Senate race and political miscalculations on both sides:

But in critiques of O’Rourke’s strategy, the deficiencies of his challenger—and the GOP as a whole—become just as clear. Texas may play host to mostly conservative voters, yes. But massive early-voting numbers and record turnout among minority demographics reveal that the state is shifting not so much in how its citizens decide to vote, but in who decides to show up. “A lot of the patterns last night were predictable,” the Republican strategist Liam Donovan told me. “It was the volume that caught everyone by surprise.” For Cruz, the blind spot was telling: His campaign based its electoral models on 6 million voters, far shy of the 8 million who ultimately turned up to vote. It’s the kind of miscalculation that, if replicated, could spell doom in the future for Republican candidates in Texas and beyond.

Read the entire piece here.

Articles

Bracewell PRG Post-Election Analysis

November 7, 2018 No Comments

My PRG colleagues and I break down the midterm results and what they mean for the policy agenda in the 116th Congress. These materials compliment a full morning-after webinar presentation from the team that can be found here.

CONTENTS

Overview
Energy
Environment
Infrastructure
Taxes
Trade Policy
Consumer Product Safety
Congressional Oversight
Appropriations
Financial Services

I authored the tax and financial services sections–click through for the full analysis.

TAXES: Trump Tax Returns, TCJA Oversight, and Repeal & Replace 2.0

By: Liam Donovan

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (2017) is here to stay, but that won’t stop ascendant House Democrats from seeking to repeal and replace the legislation. Meanwhile, oversight of the President’s tax returns could lead to partisan fireworks that color the rest of the agenda.

What Does This Mean For You?

Companies, industries, and the business community as a whole must be prepared to defend the considerable gains achieved in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act—both before Congress and the American people. The prospect of immediate policy changes is mitigated for the time being by the GOP Senate majority and (at least) two more years of a Trump White House. Yet if the law is not broadly seen as popular or effective, retrenchment is just a matter of time. A 21 percent corporate tax rate is only as permanent as the political will to preserve it.

To read our full tax analysis, click here.

FINANCIAL SERVICES: A New Day for Democrats Spurs a Return to Dodd-Frank Priorities

By: Liam Donovan and Paul Maco

House Democrats shift the financial services agenda to aggressive oversight, pumping the brakes on the Trump administration’s deregulatory agenda.

What Does this Mean for You?

Large banks will find themselves the primary focus of increased scrutiny under a Financial Services Committee helmed by Rep. Waters. Nevertheless, the committee is also likely to focus on a suite of issues applicable to a far broader slice of corporate America than the financial services industry itself. Businesses should prepare for incoming scrutiny of corporate governance issues, including executive compensation; ESG practices; and composition of board membership. The two banking committees will also play an active role in any legislative push involving privacy, data security, and protection of consumer information, potentially affecting companies well outside the financial arena.

To read our full financial services analysis, click here.

Podcasts

PRG 2018 Post-Election Analysis Webinar

November 7, 2018 No Comments

On the morning of November 7, the PRG team hosted the fourth installment of its award-winning post-election analysis series. Here is an enhanced version of the full audio, featuring the following topics and speakers:

– An overview of the results by PRG Co-Heads Scott Segal and Dee Martin

– An interview with Brian Wolff, Executive Vice President of Policy and External Affairs at EEI and former Senior Strategist to then-Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi

– An environment and energy discussion with PRG Principal Anna Burhop and PRG Senior Counsel Christine Wyman

– An infrastructure and tax discussion with PRG Principals Anna Burhop and Liam Donovan

– A trade and product safety discussion with PRG Partners Paul Nathanson and Josh Zive and PRG Principal John Lee

– A Congressional oversight and investigations discussion with PRG Co-Head Dee Martin and PRG Partner Josh Zive

Full written materials and slide deck can be found on PRG’s website.

Quotes

Daily Beast: Can Andrew Gillum Live Up to the Hype?

November 6, 2018 No Comments

I spoke with Andrew Desiderio of The Daily Beast about Andrew Gillum’s candidacy for Florida governor and what a victory might mean going forward:

“He’s the avatar of what national Democrats could see as a winning formula in 2020: combining progressive populism with a candidate who could reprise Barack Obama’s diverse coalition,” Liam Donovan, a national Republican strategist, told The Daily Beast. “Some Republicans might welcome this, thinking his platform out of step with what remains a center, center-right country, but they overlook the potency of this combination at their own peril.”

Read the entire piece here.

Quotes

BBC: When An Attack Ad is a Vote Decider

November 3, 2018 No Comments

I spoke with Georgina Rannard of BBC News about Americans’ love-hate relationship with the political attack ad:

“Campaigns use them because they work. Every bit of data shows that the negative spots work better than positive spots,” says political commentator and former Republican strategist Liam Donovan.

…

Commentator Liam Donovan says that in this election, Democrat challengers have been able to capitalise on voters turned off by the extremes of 2016 by using more positive messages:

“It’s easier to do as challenger than as an incumbent. The party in power is on attack.”

The other small difference this year in comparison to previous elections it that with so many negative ads running, a candidate cut could through the noise by running a positive one, he claims.

…

But those hoping for more positivity in American political advertising are likely to wait a long time say experts.

“It’s going to get worse in 2020 – it’s a one-way ratchet. Attack ads will work until we finally vote with our feet,” argues Mr Donovan.

Read the entire piece here.