I spoke to Sahil Kapur of Bloomberg News about the Kavanaugh confirmation process and its effect on the midterm gender gap:

The GOP’s troubles with women are likely to hurt the party most in the battle for the House, where Democrats need to flip at least 23 Republican-held seats to gain a majority. Many of the most competitive races are in suburban districts which have large numbers of college-educated women, a group with relatively high turnout. Of the more than 250 women on congressional ballots in November, more than three-quarters of them are running as Democrats.

“The problem for the GOP is twofold: one, the advantage cuts disproportionately in favor of Dems, and two, the drop-off is particularly acute among educated women in the metro suburbs where their members are most vulnerable,” said Liam Donovan, a former operative for the Senate Republican campaign arm who’s now a lobbyist.

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Polls over the past month have shown Democrats with a consistent lead over Republicans when voters are asked which party they prefer in the midterms. Much of that is driven by female voters strongly backing Democrats, while men are more narrowly divided between the two parties.

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To the extent that the Kavanaugh battle “drives the wedge further, Republicans have to hope that it activates men in the way that blunts Democrats’ overall advantage,” Donovan said. “They can survive a gap — it’s the sheer one-sidedness that stands to hurt them.”

Read the entire piece here.

I spoke with Nick Sobczyk of E&E News about what a Democratic Ways & Means committee agenda might look like in the 116th Congress, particularly as it relates to energy:

But if ranking member Richard Neal (D-Mass.) becomes chairman, energy and the environment will almost certainly get more airtime on the committee, said Liam Donovan, a principal at Bracewell LLP who works on energy and tax issues.

That could mean extending tax incentives for renewable energy and efficiency that were left out of the tax reform bill, though that issue may also be addressed in the lame-duck session.

Lawmakers retroactively extended those credits through the end of 2017 as a part of a budget accord earlier this year, but the temporary breaks won’t be in effect for this year. Current Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas) has opposed an extenders package, but it’s an issue that has bipartisan support (E&E Daily, March 15).

As for carbon pricing and renewable energy issues generally, “it won’t just be a Ways and Means issue,” Donovan said. “It’ll be something that the party is talking about, with the understanding that it’s not going anywhere in a Republican-controlled Senate or a closely divided Senate.”

Read the entire piece here.