The Hill‘s Jonathan Swan ponders Donald Trump’s narrow path to 270 electoral votes:
In reality, however, Trump has the much tougher path to 270, assuming polls are reasonably accurate.
In fact, Liam Donovan, a former aide to the National Republican Senatorial Committee, argues a Trump win would depend on a “huge systemic failure.”
“Trump isn’t going to thread the needle,” he said. “If he wins, it’s because everything we know is wrong.”
If everything pollsters are doing is wrong, Donovan said, it’s possible a whole host of states could go to Trump. But that’s not to say he’s arguing that possibility is likely.
“For instance, Pennsylvania doesn’t flip without a uniform swing that would bring Colorado and Nevada and Wisconsin and New Hampshire with it,” he said. “So it seems like boom or bust from my standpoint, with almost metaphysical certitude on bust.”
Full piece here.