I spoke to Daniel Dale of the Toronto Star about Paul Ryan’s departure and what it says about GOP fortunes in the upcoming midterm election:
“Typically you’d look to presidential approval and partisan advantage in the generic ballot question, and polls currently show Republicans still competitive, albeit in the danger zone. But beyond these traditional metrics, the sheer imbalance in enthusiasm remains the X-factor,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist and lobbyist at Bracewell LLP. “Forty-plus per cent approval and a single-digit generic ballot margin wouldn’t normally yield double-digit swings in districts across the country, and yet that’s what we’ve seen repeatedly over the past year. Ultimately, the outcome will be a function of whether the current asymmetry persists.”
Read the full piece here.