I spoke to Colin Wilhelm of the Washington Examiner about early IRS data indicating a dip in the average tax refund, and the political implications for TCJA:
It remains to be seen whether the tax season confusion shifts public opinion. Recent polling on the law from late January and early February, by CNN and the Economist/YouGov respectively, places approval for the law a bit above disapproval or about the same as dispproval.
“That’s basically Trump approval right there,” said Liam Donovan, a former staffer for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and tax policy principal at the law and lobbying firm Bracewell, referring to the Economist/YouGov poll showing the tax law at a 41 percent approval rating among registered voters.
“I think Democrats have oversold the narrative that this is just a handout for big banks and [stock] buybacks and Wall Street,” Donovan said, adding that small business owners might move opinion of the law into positive territory when they start seeing the benefits of the new tax breaks the overhaul created for them.
But Donovan wasn’t so sure opinion would change too much in the near future, arguing that most Americans had made up their mind.
“To some extent it was polarized from the get-go because it was a partisan exercise,” said Donovan. “I think people are pretty politically motivated in how they view it.”
Read the full piece here.