In the latest edition of PRG’s Pulse coverage of the midterm battlegrounds, former Toomey for Senate campaign manager Peter Towey of GOP consulting firm Targeted Victory joins The Lobby Shop team for a Pulse Check on a state both parties have homed in on as the tipping point of the Senate majority. Towey breaks down the state of the race, explains the late resurgence of Dr. Oz, and tracks Pennsylvania’s shift from Blue Wall stalwart to pure bellwether. The gang talks debate expectations, ticket splitting, and pinning down undecided voters with a seasoned pro who has run and won federal races throughout PA for more than a decade.

Nevada: Battle Born Battleground with Jon Ralston

This week’s episode is part of PRG’s Pulse election coverage. Friend of the pod and veteran political journalist Jon Ralston of The Nevada Independent joins The Lobby Shop team for a Pulse Check on what is arguably the most pivotal Senate race in the country. The gang discuss the candidates, political dynamics, demographics, electoral history and more to shed light on why Jon’s #wematter hashtag is more apt than ever.

This episode was also featured in Axios:

? Nevada’s oracle “devastating” threshold

The Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston, renowned nationally for his Nevada election analysis, broke down on The Lobby Shop podcast the key factor that will decide Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s nail-biter against Republican Adam Laxalt: 

“The Hispanic vote here in Nevada is somewhere between 20% and 15% of the electorate, depending on what the election cycle is. … I have seen no polling that shows Catherine Cortez Masto with the kind of lead she needs among the Hispanic vote. And their only hope is what Democrats have said to me for years here — that a large percentage of the Hispanic vote makes up its mind late, and are driven to the polls by the Democratic turnout machine. But if she doesn’t get well over 60% of the Hispanic vote, if Laxalt can get 40% or more of the Hispanic vote, I think that’s devastating for her.”

Ralston’s bottom line: “If the first Latina ever elected to the U.S. Senate cannot crush Adam Laxalt in the Hispanic vote, she is going to lose, and that is probably going to be a signal to the rest of the country about what’s going on.”

This week, The Lobby Shop team is joined by returning guest Sean Trende, a Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics, to talk about the 2022 midterm elections. Tune in as the group offers keen insight into what factors, such as the leaked draft decision from the Supreme Court and Biden’s falling approval ratings, will impact the results.

Apple Podcasts

Stitcher

Spotify

Google Podcasts

Soundcloud:

A few key highlights

Here’s the Trende take on the durability of the current House map, and the real possibility of a cascade should Biden go into election night at current approval levels. pic.twitter.com/trUnNHUUhy

— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) June 5, 2022

On the meaning of the generic ballot numbers at this juncture:

On the Hispanic shift toward the GOP, especially along the Rio Grande Valley:

I sat down this week with National Journal‘s Josh Kraushaar for his Against the Grain podcast to talk about the midterm outlook, what could go wrong for Republicans, why Democrats have struggled to move the Biden agenda, and take a closer look at the electability of GOP recruits.

A few key moments: